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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 95

Denver Broncos 28 – Kansas City Chiefs 34

What Actually Happened

(7:28) 17-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to DEN 48, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 84-Ju.Watson to DEN 41 for 7 yards (32-D.Turner-Yell).

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.81 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 95, worth -5.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 53, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model