Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 70

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(1:08) 17-C.Waitman punts 48 yards to KC 22, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model