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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model