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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Thursday 2022-12-08 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -6.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

LV
60.7%
LA
39.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Baker Mayfield (LA): -0.167 EPA/dropback in prior starts (LA starting Baker Mayfield in place of John Wolford)
  • LA offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.121 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LV 24
–
LA 21
Projected margin: LV by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

LV

Andrew Billings DT Out Fibula
Jayon Brown LB Out Hand
Jesper Horsted TE Out Concussion
Rock Ya-Sin CB Out Knee
Tyler Hall CB Questionable Back
Josh Jacobs RB Questionable Quadricep

LA

Aaron Donald DT Out Ankle
Travin Howard LB Out Hip
Terrell Lewis LB Out Back
David Long CB Out Groin
Brandon Powell WR Questionable Illness
Troy Hill CB Questionable Groin
Lance McCutcheon WR Questionable Shoulder
John Wolford QB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 16
–
LA 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:17 TD LV (9:17) 28-J.Jacobs right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 02:27 FG LV (2:27) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – LA 0
  • Q1 00:11 FG LA (:11) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon. LV 10 – LA 3
  • Q2 09:44 FG LV (9:44) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – LA 3
  • Q4 12:25 FG LV (12:25) 2-D.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – LA 3
  • Q4 03:25 TD LA (3:25) 3-C.Akers up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – LA 9
  • Q4 00:15 TD LA (:15) (Shotgun) 17-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 12-V.Jefferson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 16 – LA 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:11) 11-R.Dixon punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-42-M.Orzech, Touchback.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 73%

    (2:27) 2-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 2 at the 37
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 67%

    (:11) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 9 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (9:44) 2-D.Carlson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 19 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:19) 11-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to LV 42, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 37%

    (10:26) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to LA 13, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:15) 11-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:45) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to LA 27, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-B.Powell to LA 34 for 7 yards (59-L.Masterson, 36-C.Bolton). PENALTY on LA-31-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 27.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 84%

    (14:27) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr up the middle to LA 25 for 3 yards (45-B.Wagner; 91-G.Gaines).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 93%

    (12:25) 2-D.Carlson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (3:55) 17-B.Mayfield pass short left to 3-C.Akers to LV 1 for 1 yard (25-T.Moehrig).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to LA 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-22-A.Abdullah.