Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

(8:15) 11-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model