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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 75

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to LA 27, Center-47-T.Sieg. 19-B.Powell to LA 34 for 7 yards (59-L.Masterson, 36-C.Bolton). PENALTY on LA-31-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 27.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.99 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 75, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 32, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP