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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(14:27) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr up the middle to LA 25 for 3 yards (45-B.Wagner; 91-G.Gaines).

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.23 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model