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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 16 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to LA 2, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-22-A.Abdullah.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.46 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP