Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson. PENALTY on MIA-27-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 79, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model