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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 54.5

Win Probability

MIA
56.8%
LAC
43.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC defense: +0.091 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.220 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA offense: +0.036 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

MIA 25
–
LAC 24
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIA

River Cracraft WR Doubtful Calf
Terron Armstead T Questionable Toe
Teddy Bridgewater QB Questionable Knee
Durham Smythe TE Questionable Quadricep
Justin Zimmer DT Questionable Back

LAC

Bryce Callahan CB Doubtful Groin
Derwin James S Doubtful Quadricep
Sebastian Joseph DT Doubtful Knee
Trey Pipkins T Doubtful Knee
Richard Rodgers TE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17
–
LAC 23

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:18 FG LAC (14:18) 15-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. MIA 0 – LAC 3
  • Q2 09:57 TD LAC (9:57) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 81-M.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – LAC 9
  • Q2 09:02 TD MIA (9:02) (Shotgun) 23-J.Wilson up the middle to MIA 47 for 6 yards (32-A.Gilman). FUMBLES (32-A.Gilman), touched at MIA 44, recovered by MIA-10-T.Hill at MIA 43. 10-T.Hill for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:21 TD LAC (:21) 74-S.Norton reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 7 – LAC 16
  • Q3 06:31 TD MIA (6:31) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – LAC 17
  • Q3 04:22 FG LAC (4:22) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. MIA 14 – LAC 20
  • Q4 02:43 FG LAC (2:43) 15-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. MIA 14 – LAC 23
  • Q4 01:15 FG MIA (1:15) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead. MIA 17 – LAC 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:46) 4-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to LAC 20, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-D.Carter to LAC 20 for no gain (22-E.Campbell).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 99%

    (6:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 1-D.Carter to MIA 2 for no gain (28-K.Kohou).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 15 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:44) 4-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to LAC 43, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%

    (14:18) 15-C.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:53) 4-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to LAC 34, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at MIA 43 for 23 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:30) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson. PENALTY on MIA-27-K.Crossen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:16) 4-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to LAC 10, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-44-B.Ferguson.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (:21) 74-S.Norton reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:39) 16-J.Scott punts 34 yards to MIA 35, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:45) 4-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to LAC 17, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (9:13) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (4:22) 15-C.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 47%

    (11:26) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to LAC 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (2:43) 15-C.Dicker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 37 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 67%

    (1:15) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.