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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(:21) 74-S.Norton reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.76 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 1, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.78 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model