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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to MIA 24, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.29 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP