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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 78

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to MIA 26, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.15 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 35, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP