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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 4-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to LAC 11, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model