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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 37

Miami Dolphins 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 7-J.Sanders 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.50 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model