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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 89

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 4-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to LAC 43, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.73 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model