4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 14

Arizona Cardinals 3 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model