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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Monday 2022-12-12 · 20:15 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

NE
42.6%
ARI
57.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.172 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.051 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI on 4 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NE

Jakobi Meyers WR Out Concussion
Jalen Mills CB Out Groin
Isaiah Wynn T Out Foot
Damien Harris RB Doubtful Thigh
Trenton Brown T Questionable Illness
Yodny Cajuste T Questionable Calf

ARI

Rashaad Coward T Out Chest
Rondale Moore WR Out Groin
Byron Murphy CB Out Back
Zach Allen DE Questionable Illness
Jonathan Ledbetter DE Questionable Back
Charles Washington S Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 27
–
ARI 13

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:56 FG ARI (14:56) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. NE 0 – ARI 3
  • Q2 11:32 TD NE (11:32) (Shotgun) 36-K.Harris up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – ARI 3
  • Q2 09:38 FG ARI (9:38) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. NE 7 – ARI 6
  • Q2 03:07 TD ARI (3:07) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – ARI 12
  • Q2 00:04 FG NE (:04) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 10 – ARI 13
  • Q3 10:18 FG NE (10:18) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy. NE 13 – ARI 13
  • Q3 05:42 TD NE (5:42) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to ARI 22 for 4 yards (23-K.Dugger) [91-D.Wise]. FUMBLES (23-K.Dugger), RECOVERED by NE-50-R.McMillan at ARI 23. 50-R.McMillan for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – ARI 13
  • Q4 14:13 TD NE (14:13) (Shotgun) 35-P.Strong up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on ARI-25-Z.Collins, Defensive Offside, declined. NE 26 – ARI 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 79%

    (10:39) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 14 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 35%

    (9:18) 17-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to ARI 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch. PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 8.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:08) 14-A.Lee punts 53 yards to NE 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-51-T.Vallejo. PENALTY on NE-44-R.Webb, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at NE 6.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 95%

    (14:56) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (9:38) 5-M.Prater 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 11 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to ARI 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 77%

    (:36) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete short right to 85-T.McBride (48-J.Tavai).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (10:18) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 57%

    (7:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass incomplete deep left to 2-M.Brown.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (6:30) 17-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to ARI 6, Center-49-J.Cardona. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 6 for no gain (41-B.Schooler; 18-M.Slater).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 20 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:42) 14-A.Lee punts 44 yards to NE 42, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 49 for 7 yards (56-B.Niemann).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 50%

    (9:58) 17-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (7:22) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy scrambles left end to NE 48 for 9 yards (8-J.Bentley). NE-32-D.McCourty was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-9-M.Judon, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 32%

    (5:04) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy sacked at ARI 41 for -8 yards (55-J.Uche).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

    (4:02) 17-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:28) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy scrambles up the middle to ARI 37 for 5 yards (55-J.Uche, 91-D.Wise).