Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 69

New England Patriots 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

(7:00) 17-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to ARI 37, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model