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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 4

New England Patriots 10 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 6-N.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.18 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 4, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.67 EP