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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 20 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 14-A.Lee punts 44 yards to NE 42, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 49 for 7 yards (56-B.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.57 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -4.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model