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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 44

New England Patriots 27 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 17-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.81 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 44, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP