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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(7:22) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy scrambles left end to NE 48 for 9 yards (8-J.Bentley). NE-32-D.McCourty was injured during the play. Penalty on NE-9-M.Judon, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 57, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model