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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 51

Arizona Cardinals 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(5:04) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy sacked at ARI 41 for -8 yards (55-J.Uche).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.07 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 51, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.49 EP