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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 68

Arizona Cardinals 13 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy scrambles up the middle to ARI 37 for 5 yards (55-J.Uche, 91-D.Wise).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EP