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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 14 at the 50

New England Patriots 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 17-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to ARI 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch. PENALTY on ARI-35-C.Matthew, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.44 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.45 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model