Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 14-A.Lee punts 53 yards to NE 6, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-51-T.Vallejo. PENALTY on NE-44-R.Webb, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at NE 6.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model