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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NYJ 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.02 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.44 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP