NYJ @ BUF — 4th & Data

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HC Robert Saleh

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HC Sean McDermott

Sunday 2022-12-11 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYJ

34.0%

BUF

66.0%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

BUF offense: +0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Josh Allen (BUF): +0.178 EPA/dropback in prior starts
NYJ defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
NYJ offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
BUF on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 20

–

BUF 25

Projected margin: BUF by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

NYJ

Micheal Clemons DE Questionable Illness

BUF

Reggie Gilliam FB Out Ankle

Jordan Phillips DE Out Shoulder

Dion Dawkins T Questionable Ankle

Matt Milano LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 12

–

BUF 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q2 00:34 TD BUF (:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [47-B.Huff]. NYJ 0 – BUF 6
Q3 10:05 TD NYJ (10:05) (Shotgun) 27-Z.Knight left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – BUF 7
Q3 07:24 TD BUF (7:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – BUF 13
Q3 02:11 FG BUF (2:11) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NYJ 7 – BUF 17
Q4 12:28 FG BUF (12:28) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. NYJ 7 – BUF 20
Q4 07:35 SAF NYJ (7:35) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.Johnson, Center-69-R.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. NYJ 9 – BUF 20
Q4 01:21 FG NYJ (1:21) 6-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. NYJ 12 – BUF 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 69

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP

p(convert) 63%

(13:39) 8-S.Martin punts 67 yards to NYJ 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(8:38) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to BUF 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.
Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 24%

(6:15) 8-S.Martin punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(3:31) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to BUF 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.
Q1 BUF 4th & 16 at the 88

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(2:36) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NYJ 42, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at BUF 48 for 10 yards (4-J.Johnson).
Q1 NYJ 4th & 19 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(1:39) 7-B.Mann punts 39 yards to BUF 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-N.Hines to BUF 20 for 2 yards (88-K.Yeboah).
Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 52

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 22%

(12:15) 8-S.Martin punts 46 yards to NYJ 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-25-T.Jones.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(8:45) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to BUF 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-N.Hines to 50 for 23 yards (34-J.Hardee).
Q2 BUF 4th & 18 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(6:56) 8-S.Martin punts 32 yards to NYJ 26, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-52-A.Klein.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 30%

(3:11) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback. PENALTY on NYJ-42-T.Hennessy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 20.
Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 20

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 90%

(2:11) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(:14) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to BUF 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-N.Hines to BUF 48 for 17 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 74%

(12:28) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 24%

(8:34) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to BUF 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.
Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 91

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(7:35) 8-S.Martin punt is BLOCKED by 52-J.Johnson, Center-69-R.Ferguson, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.
Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 83 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(3:25) 8-S.Martin punts 60 yards to NYJ 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 36 for 13 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 9 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

(1:21) 6-G.Zuerlein 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 66 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(:53) 8-S.Martin punts 45 yards to NYJ 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 79 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP

p(convert) 36%

(:30) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 8-E.Moore (57-A.Epenesa). Pass batted at line.