4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 76

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:45) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to BUF 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-N.Hines to 50 for 23 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.08 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model