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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 8-S.Martin punts 67 yards to NYJ 2, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +2.20 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP