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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 20

Buffalo Bills 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 2-T.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.95 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP