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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 82

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(:14) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to BUF 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 20-N.Hines to BUF 48 for 17 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model