4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 17 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.34 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model