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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 73

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 7-B.Mann punts 40 yards to BUF 33, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.20 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 31, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model