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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 51

New York Jets 7 – Buffalo Bills 20

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 7-B.Mann punts 43 yards to BUF 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 20-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 51, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.43 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model