Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 20 – New York Jets 9

(3:25) 8-S.Martin punts 60 yards to NYJ 23, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 36 for 13 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -2.69 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.16 EP
68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model