Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 79

New York Jets 12 – Buffalo Bills 20

(:30) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass incomplete short middle to 8-E.Moore (57-A.Epenesa). Pass batted at line.

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.36 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 79, worth -2.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP