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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 59

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:31) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to BUF 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.05 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model