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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 41

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence].

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model