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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
Sunday 2022-12-11 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

PHI
57.5%
NYG
42.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.120 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI): +0.179 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 25
–
NYG 23
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

PHI

Shaun Bradley LB Out Hamstring
Trey Sermon RB Questionable Illness

NYG

Joshua Ezeudu G Out Neck
Adoree' Jackson CB Out Knee
Shane Lemieux G Out Toe
Leonard Williams DT Doubtful Neck
Saquon Barkley RB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 48
–
NYG 22

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:20 TD PHI (4:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NYG 0
  • Q2 12:14 TD PHI (12:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence]. PHI 13 – NYG 0
  • Q2 08:24 TD PHI (8:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – NYG 0
  • Q2 03:03 TD NYG (3:03) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 18-I.Hodgins for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – NYG 6
  • Q2 00:58 FG PHI (:58) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-18-B.Covey. PHI 24 – NYG 7
  • Q3 11:25 FG PHI (11:25) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-18-B.Covey. PHI 27 – NYG 7
  • Q3 05:42 TD NYG (5:42) 8-D.Jones left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – NYG 13
  • Q3 01:46 TD PHI (1:46) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 33 – NYG 14
  • Q4 06:10 TD PHI (6:10) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders right tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 40 – NYG 14
  • Q4 03:14 TD PHI (3:14) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 47 – NYG 14
  • Q4 00:44 TD NYG (:44) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass deep right to 80-R.James for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PHI-22-M.Epps, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. PHI 48 – NYG 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 19 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to PHI 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 16 for 1 yard (38-Z.Gilbert).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 17, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 12 yards (58-C.Kreiter; 85-C.Myarick). PENALTY on PHI-27-Z.McPhearson, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at PHI 17. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 52%

    (12:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 6-D.Smith for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence].

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:32) (Punt formation) 6-J.Gillan to NYG 33 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, touched at NYG 33, recovered by NYG-52-C.Coughlin at NYG 33. PENALTY on NYG-6-J.Gillan, Illegal Kick/Kicking Loose Ball, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 43.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 30%

    (5:14) 6-J.Gillan punts 42 yards to PHI 8, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:25) 8-A.Siposs punt is BLOCKED by 94-E.Smith, Center-45-R.Lovato, recovered by PHI-8-A.Siposs at PHI 2. 8-A.Siposs ran ob at PHI 15 for 13 yards (38-Z.Gilbert). PHI-8-A.Siposs was injured during the play.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (:58) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to PHI 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 32 for 12 yards (20-J.Love, 85-C.Myarick).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (11:25) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to PHI 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 44 for 16 yards (85-C.Myarick).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:36) 4-J.Elliott punts 35 yards to NYG 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-17-N.Dean.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:51) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle to NYG 36 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (10:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 80-R.James [94-J.Sweat].

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 27%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles up the middle to PHI 19 for 32 yards (42-K.Wallace).