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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 19 at the 67

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:28) 6-J.Gillan punts 52 yards to PHI 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 16 for 1 yard (38-Z.Gilbert).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.32 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model