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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 34 – New York Giants 14

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-J.Elliott punts 35 yards to NYG 25, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-17-N.Dean.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.84 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model