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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 23

New York Giants 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 34

What Actually Happened

(10:02) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 80-R.James [94-J.Sweat].

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP