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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 63

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to PHI 17, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 12 yards (58-C.Kreiter; 85-C.Myarick). PENALTY on PHI-27-Z.McPhearson, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at PHI 17. Officially, a return for 0 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.60 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model