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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to NO 13, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.86 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP