4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
Sunday 2022-12-18 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ATL
48.1%
NO
51.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Desmond Ridder (ATL): -0.100 EPA/dropback in prior starts (ATL starting Desmond Ridder in place of Marcus Mariota)
  • NO defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • ATL offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL defense: +0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
NO 23
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

ATL

Chuma Edoga G Out Knee

NO

Zack Baun LB Out Ankle
P.J. Williams CB Out Knee
J.T. Gray S Questionable Hamstring
Dwayne Washington RB Questionable Illness
Juwan Johnson TE Questionable Ankle
Marshon Lattimore CB Questionable Abdomen
Adam Trautman TE Questionable Ankle
Payton Turner DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 18
–
NO 21

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:12 TD NO (10:12) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to ATL 1 for 18 yards (24-A.Terrell; 27-R.Grant). New Orleans challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 15, YAC 4 ATL 0 – NO 6
  • Q1 08:27 TD NO (8:27) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. (Shotgun) 70-T.Penning reported in as eligible. 7-T.Hill pass deep middle to 89-R.Shaheed for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 33, YAC 35 ATL 0 – NO 13
  • Q2 11:19 FG ATL (11:19) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 3 – NO 14
  • Q3 10:51 TD ATL (10:51) (Shotgun) 25-T.Allgeier right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – NO 14
  • Q3 03:39 TD NO (3:39) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 83-J.Johnson for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-54-R.Evans, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Pass 12, YAC 10 ATL 10 – NO 20
  • Q4 07:12 TD ATL (7:12) 84-C.Patterson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – NO 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:16) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 27, Center-48-L.McCullough. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 27 for no gain (12-K.Hodge).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 37%

    (6:48) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NO 9, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to ATL 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (11:19) 7-Y.Koo 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 7 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:47) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NO 36, Center-48-L.McCullough. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 37 for 1 yard (12-K.Hodge).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 52%

    (3:27) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to ATL 2, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 42%

    (:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 34 yards to NO 13, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 28%

    (13:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NO 11, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 17 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (11:17) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to NO 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to NO 32 for 10 yards (48-J.Gray).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (6:16) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to ATL 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to ATL 37 for 20 yards (46-A.Prentice). PENALTY on ATL-28-M.Ford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 20.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 35%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short middle to 5-D.London to NO 38 for 12 yards (30-J.Evans). FUMBLES (30-J.Evans), RECOVERED by NO-21-B.Roby at NO 35. 21-B.Roby to NO 39 for 4 yards (5-D.London).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.80 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 85%

    (:12) 7-T.Hill at quarterback. 7-T.Hill FUMBLES (Aborted) at ATL 27, and recovers at ATL 27. 7-T.Hill to ATL 27 for no gain (54-R.Evans).