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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 53

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(13:29) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NO 11, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model