Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 96

New Orleans Saints 21 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(11:17) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to NO 42, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to NO 32 for 10 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -3.72 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.99 EP
69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 96, worth -5.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model