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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 50

Atlanta Falcons 18 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Ridder pass short middle to 5-D.London to NO 38 for 12 yards (30-J.Evans). FUMBLES (30-J.Evans), RECOVERED by NO-21-B.Roby at NO 35. 21-B.Roby to NO 39 for 4 yards (5-D.London).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.13 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -1.81 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model